Hertford and Stortford
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 44% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertford and Stortford | 26.6% | 26.5% | 24.9% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+3.5 | 20.4%+6.1 | 24.3%+0.6 | 10.4%+1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,107 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 81.6% |
Current member
Josh Dean · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Robert Abraham Dean Elected | Labour | 20,808 | 38.5 |
| Julie Marson | Conservative | 16,060 | 29.7 |
| John Burmicz | Reform UK | 8,325 | 15.4 |
| Nick Cox | Green | 4,373 | 8.1 |
| Helen Rosemary Campbell | Lib Dems | 4,167 | 7.7 |
| Jane Fowler | Other | 139 | 0.3 |
| Barry Hensall | Other | 137 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Broxbourne Conservative, toss-up
- Harlow Reform UK, toss-up
- Epping Forest Conservative, safe seat
- North East Hertfordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative, safe seat
- Enfield North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated