Harlow
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 54%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harlow | 32.4% | 27.3% | 25.2% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.3 | 20.4%+6.9 | 24.3%+1.0 | 10.4%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 112,137 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Chris Vince · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Vince Elected | Labour | 16,313 | 37.6 |
| Hannah Ellis | Conservative | 13,809 | 31.8 |
| Malcolm Featherstone | Reform UK | 9,461 | 21.8 |
| Yasmin Gregory | Green | 2,267 | 5.2 |
| Riad Mannan | Lib Dems | 1,350 | 3.1 |
| Lois Perry | Other | 157 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hertford and Stortford Reform UK, toss-up
- Epping Forest Conservative, safe seat
- Brentwood and Ongar Conservative, toss-up
- Broxbourne Conservative, toss-up
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Romford Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated