North West Essex
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West Essex | 33.1% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.6 | 23.1%−0.4 | 24.3%−2.4 | 10.3%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,580 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
Current member
Mrs Kemi Badenoch · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch Elected | Conservative | 19,360 | 35.6 |
| Issy Waite | Labour | 16,750 | 30.8 |
| Grant StClair-Armstrong | Reform UK | 7,668 | 14.1 |
| Smita Rajesh | Lib Dems | 6,055 | 11.1 |
| Edward Gildea | Green | 2,846 | 5.2 |
| Andrew Green | Other | 852 | 1.6 |
| Erik Bonino | Other | 699 | 1.3 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brentwood and Ongar Conservative, toss-up
- Harlow Reform UK, toss-up
- Chelmsford Lib Dems, safe seat
- Braintree Reform UK, toss-up
- Hertford and Stortford Reform UK, toss-up
- Basildon and Billericay Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated