Braintree
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braintree | 32.0% | 31.5% | 18.6% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.9 | 20.4%+11.1 | 24.3%−5.6 | 10.4%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,458 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 80.6% |
Current member
Sir James Cleverly · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cleverly Elected | Conservative | 17,414 | 35.5 |
| Matthew Wright | Labour | 13,744 | 28.0 |
| Richard Thomson | Reform UK | 11,346 | 23.1 |
| Kieron Franks | Lib Dems | 2,879 | 5.9 |
| Paul Thorogood | Green | 2,878 | 5.9 |
| David Heather | Other | 767 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Suffolk Reform UK, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
- Chelmsford Lib Dems, safe seat
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated