West Suffolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Suffolk | 30.1% | 29.9% | 18.2% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.0 | 20.4%+9.5 | 24.3%−6.1 | 10.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 119,754 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 80.8% |
Current member
Nick Timothy · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Timothy Elected | Conservative | 15,814 | 34.3 |
| Rebecca Denness | Labour | 12,567 | 27.2 |
| David Bull | Reform UK | 9,623 | 20.9 |
| Henry Batchelor | Lib Dems | 4,284 | 9.3 |
| Mark Ereira | Green | 2,910 | 6.3 |
| Katie Parker | Other | 485 | 1.1 |
| Luke O'Brien | Other | 345 | 0.8 |
| Ivan Kinsman | Other | 133 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Braintree Reform UK, toss-up
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Norfolk Reform UK, safe seat
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Cambridge Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated