South West Norfolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South West Norfolk | 32.9% | 22.1% | 16.1% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.8 | 20.4%+1.7 | 24.3%−8.2 | 5.0%+9.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,442 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 73.5% |
Current member
Terry Jermy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Jermy Elected | Labour | 11,847 | 26.7 |
| Liz Truss | Conservative | 11,217 | 25.3 |
| Tobias McKenzie | Reform UK | 9,958 | 22.5 |
| James Bagge | Other | 6,282 | 14.2 |
| Josie Ratcliffe | Lib Dems | 2,618 | 5.9 |
| Pallavi Devulapalli | Green | 1,838 | 4.1 |
| Earl Elvis Of East Anglia | Other | 338 | 0.8 |
| Gary Conway | Other | 160 | 0.4 |
| Lorraine Douglas | Other | 77 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform UK, toss-up
- West Suffolk Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- South Holland and The Deepings Reform UK, toss-up
- Braintree Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated