Mid Norfolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Norfolk | 31.3% | 31.3% | 20.2% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.9 | 23.1%+8.3 | 24.3%−4.0 | 10.4%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,447 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 81.3% |
Current member
George Freeman · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Freeman Elected | Conservative | 16,770 | 36.5 |
| Michael Rosen | Labour | 13,716 | 29.9 |
| Kabeer Kher | Reform UK | 9,427 | 20.5 |
| Stuart Howard | Lib Dems | 3,126 | 6.8 |
| Ash Haynes | Green | 2,858 | 6.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South West Norfolk Reform UK, safe seat
- Norwich North Labour, toss-up
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform UK, toss-up
- Norwich South Labour, safe seat
- Broadland and Fakenham Reform UK, toss-up
- West Suffolk Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated