Broadland and Fakenham
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadland and Fakenham | 28.6% | 28.4% | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.6 | 20.4%+8.0 | 24.3%−3.2 | 10.3%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,786 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 80.0% |
Current member
Jerome Mayhew · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 1.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Mayhew Elected | Conservative | 16,322 | 33.0 |
| Iain Simpson | Labour | 15,603 | 31.5 |
| Eric Masters | Reform UK | 8,859 | 17.9 |
| Leyla Hannbeck | Lib Dems | 5,526 | 11.2 |
| Jan Davis | Green | 3,203 | 6.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Norfolk Lib Dems, safe seat
- Norwich South Labour, safe seat
- Norwich North Labour, toss-up
- Waveney Valley Green, safe seat
- South Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- Great Yarmouth Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated