North Norfolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Norfolk | 37.4% | 28.2% | 23.9% | 5.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+27.1 | 20.4%+7.7 | 23.1%+0.8 | 10.4%−5.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 87,052 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 55 |
| Employment rate | 70.0% |
Current member
Steff Aquarone · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 5.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 9.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steffan Aquarone Elected | Lib Dems | 19,488 | 41.4 |
| Duncan Baker | Conservative | 16,903 | 35.9 |
| Jason Patchett | Reform UK | 6,368 | 13.5 |
| Cathy Cordiner-Achenbach | Labour | 2,878 | 6.1 |
| Liz Dixon | Green | 1,406 | 3.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Broadland and Fakenham Reform UK, toss-up
- South Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- Great Yarmouth Reform UK, safe seat
- Norwich South Labour, safe seat
- Waveney Valley Green, safe seat
- Norwich North Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated