South Norfolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Norfolk | 25.7% | 25.4% | 23.9% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+5.3 | 23.1%+2.4 | 24.3%−0.4 | 10.4%+1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,569 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 78.4% |
Current member
Ben Goldsborough · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Goldsborough Elected | Labour | 17,353 | 35.0 |
| Poppy Simister-Thomas | Conservative | 14,527 | 29.3 |
| Chris Harrison | Reform UK | 7,583 | 15.3 |
| Christopher Brown | Lib Dems | 5,746 | 11.6 |
| Catherine Rowett | Green | 3,987 | 8.0 |
| Paco Davila | Other | 254 | 0.5 |
| Jason Maguire | Other | 129 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Great Yarmouth Reform UK, safe seat
- Waveney Valley Green, safe seat
- Lowestoft Reform UK, safe seat
- North Norfolk Lib Dems, safe seat
- Broadland and Fakenham Reform UK, toss-up
- Norwich South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated