Great Yarmouth
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Yarmouth | 41.3% | 20.7% | 20.3% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+18.2 | 24.3%−3.6 | 20.4%−0.1 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,862 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 68.8% |
Current member
Rupert Lowe · Other
Previous election (2024)
Reform UK won by 3.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 19.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rupert Lowe Elected | Reform UK | 14,385 | 35.3 |
| Keir Cozens | Labour | 12,959 | 31.8 |
| James Clark | Conservative | 10,034 | 24.6 |
| Trevor Rawson | Green | 1,736 | 4.3 |
| Fionna Tod | Lib Dems | 1,102 | 2.7 |
| Paul Brown | Other | 230 | 0.6 |
| Catherine Blaiklock | Other | 171 | 0.4 |
| Clare Roullier | Other | 131 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- Lowestoft Reform UK, safe seat
- Waveney Valley Green, safe seat
- North Norfolk Lib Dems, safe seat
- Broadland and Fakenham Reform UK, toss-up
- Norwich South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated