North West Norfolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West Norfolk | 31.5% | 30.0% | 16.3% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.1 | 23.1%+6.9 | 24.3%−8.0 | 10.3%+1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,352 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 78.1% |
Current member
James Wild · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Wild Elected | Conservative | 16,097 | 36.1 |
| Tim Leaver | Labour | 11,143 | 25.0 |
| Phil Walton | Reform UK | 8,697 | 19.5 |
| Rob Colwell | Lib Dems | 6,492 | 14.6 |
| Michael de Whalley | Green | 2,137 | 4.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Holland and The Deepings Reform UK, toss-up
- Boston and Skegness Reform UK, safe seat
- North East Cambridgeshire Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Norfolk Reform UK, safe seat
- Peterborough Conservative, toss-up
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated