Boston and Skegness
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston and Skegness | 46.1% | 27.7% | 11.3% | 6.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+23.0 | 20.4%+7.3 | 24.3%−13.0 | 10.4%−3.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 117,072 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 69.6% |
Current member
Richard Tice · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
Reform UK won by 5.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 18.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Tice Elected | Reform UK | 15,520 | 38.4 |
| Matt Warman | Conservative | 13,510 | 33.4 |
| Alexandra Fawbert | Labour | 7,629 | 18.9 |
| Chris Moore | Green | 1,506 | 3.7 |
| Richard Lloyd | Lib Dems | 1,375 | 3.4 |
| David Dickason | Other | 518 | 1.3 |
| Mike Gilbert | Other | 397 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peterborough Conservative, toss-up
- South Holland and The Deepings Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- North East Cambridgeshire Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Cambridgeshire Conservative, toss-up
- Grantham and Bourne Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated