Peterborough
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 26.9% | 24.4% | 22.8% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+6.5 | 23.1%+1.3 | 24.3%−1.4 | 5.0%+6.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 129,996 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 76.2% |
Current member
Andrew Pakes · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Pakes Elected | Labour | 13,418 | 32.1 |
| Paul Bristow | Conservative | 13,300 | 31.8 |
| Sue Morris | Reform UK | 5,379 | 12.9 |
| Amjad Hussain | Other | 5,051 | 12.1 |
| Nicola Day | Green | 2,542 | 6.1 |
| Nick Sandford | Lib Dems | 1,746 | 4.2 |
| Tom Rogers | Other | 225 | 0.5 |
| Zahid Khan | Other | 211 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North West Cambridgeshire Conservative, toss-up
- Huntingdon Conservative, safe seat
- Boston and Skegness Reform UK, safe seat
- North East Cambridgeshire Reform UK, toss-up
- Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour, toss-up
- St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated