St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | 33.0% | 24.6% | 18.9% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+22.7 | 20.4%+4.1 | 23.1%−4.1 | 24.3%−15.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,460 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 82.8% |
Current member
Ian Sollom · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 8.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Sollom Elected | Lib Dems | 19,517 | 36.9 |
| Anthony Browne | Conservative | 14,896 | 28.2 |
| Marianna Masters | Labour | 6,918 | 13.1 |
| Guy Lachlan | Reform UK | 5,673 | 10.7 |
| Stephen Ferguson | Other | 2,941 | 5.6 |
| Kathryn Fisher | Green | 2,663 | 5.0 |
| Bev White | Other | 274 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Huntingdon Conservative, safe seat
- Cambridge Labour, safe seat
- South Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- North East Cambridgeshire Reform UK, toss-up
- North Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated