Ely and East Cambridgeshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 82%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | 30.3% | 26.8% | 21.0% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+20.0 | 20.4%+6.4 | 23.1%−2.1 | 24.3%−12.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,563 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 82.0% |
Current member
Charlotte Cane · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 1.0 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Cane Elected | Lib Dems | 17,127 | 32.7 |
| Lucy Frazer | Conservative | 16,632 | 31.8 |
| Elizabeth McWilliams | Labour | 9,160 | 17.5 |
| Ryan Coogan | Reform UK | 6,443 | 12.3 |
| Andy Cogan | Green | 2,359 | 4.5 |
| Hoo-Ray Henry | Other | 271 | 0.5 |
| Robert Bayley | Other | 172 | 0.3 |
| Obi Monye | Other | 103 | 0.2 |
| Rob Rawlins | Other | 102 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cambridge Labour, safe seat
- South Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Cambridgeshire Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
- West Suffolk Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated