South Cambridgeshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Cambridgeshire | 41.9% | 24.0% | 16.0% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+31.6 | 20.4%+3.6 | 23.1%−7.1 | 10.4%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,430 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 82.9% |
Current member
Pippa Heylings · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 19.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 17.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pippa Heylings Elected | Lib Dems | 25,704 | 46.8 |
| Chris Carter-Chapman | Conservative | 15,063 | 27.4 |
| Luke Viner | Labour | 6,106 | 11.1 |
| Harrison Edwards | Reform UK | 4,897 | 8.9 |
| Miranda Fyfe | Green | 2,656 | 4.8 |
| James Gordon | Other | 459 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cambridge Labour, safe seat
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Hertfordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Hertford and Stortford Reform UK, toss-up
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated