North East Cambridgeshire
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North East Cambridgeshire | 34.3% | 34.2% | 13.1% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.2 | 20.4%+13.8 | 24.3%−11.1 | 10.4%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,035 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 78.3% |
Current member
Steve Barclay · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 18.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Barclay Elected | Conservative | 16,246 | 41.5 |
| Chris Thornhill | Reform UK | 9,057 | 23.1 |
| Javeria Hussain | Labour | 8,008 | 20.4 |
| David Chalmers | Lib Dems | 2,716 | 6.9 |
| Andrew Crawford | Green | 2,001 | 5.1 |
| David Patrick | Other | 958 | 2.5 |
| Clayton Payne | Other | 190 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, toss-up
- Peterborough Conservative, toss-up
- Cambridge Labour, safe seat
- St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- North West Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- South Holland and The Deepings Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated