Grantham and Bourne
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grantham and Bourne | 32.0% | 30.0% | 18.2% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.6 | 23.1%+6.9 | 24.3%−6.1 | 10.4%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,752 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 79.3% |
Current member
Gareth Davies · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Davies Elected | Conservative | 16,770 | 36.4 |
| Vipul Bechar | Labour | 12,274 | 26.6 |
| Mike Rudkin | Reform UK | 9,393 | 20.4 |
| Anne Gayfer | Green | 2,570 | 5.6 |
| John Vincent | Lib Dems | 2,027 | 4.4 |
| Ian Selby | Other | 1,642 | 3.6 |
| Charmaine Morgan | Other | 1,245 | 2.7 |
| Alexander Mitchell | Other | 204 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative, toss-up
- Rutland and Stamford Conservative, safe seat
- Lincoln Labour, competitive
- Melton and Syston Conservative, competitive
- Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour, toss-up
- Newark Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated