Newark
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newark | 35.1% | 24.8% | 23.0% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.7 | 23.1%+1.8 | 24.3%−1.3 | 10.4%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,221 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 70.4% |
Current member
Robert Jenrick · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick Elected | Conservative | 20,968 | 39.2 |
| Saj Ahmad | Labour | 17,396 | 32.5 |
| Robert Palmer | Reform UK | 8,280 | 15.5 |
| David Watts | Lib Dems | 3,026 | 5.7 |
| Michael Ackroyd | Green | 2,345 | 4.4 |
| Adrian Amer | Other | 809 | 1.5 |
| Lyn Galbraith | Other | 329 | 0.6 |
| Matthew Darrington | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
| Collan Siddique | Other | 150 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gainsborough Reform UK, toss-up
- Lincoln Labour, competitive
- Bassetlaw Reform UK, competitive
- Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative, toss-up
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform UK, competitive
- Sherwood Forest Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated