Lincoln
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 32.5% | 26.1% | 19.4% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.2 | 23.1%+3.0 | 20.4%−1.0 | 10.4%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 116,507 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 75.1% |
Current member
Mr Hamish Falconer · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamish Falconer Elected | Labour | 18,470 | 43.8 |
| Karl McCartney | Conservative | 9,677 | 23.0 |
| Jamie-Lee McMillan | Reform UK | 7,602 | 18.0 |
| Sally Horscroft | Green | 2,751 | 6.5 |
| Clare Smalley | Lib Dems | 2,580 | 6.1 |
| Linda Richardson | Other | 479 | 1.1 |
| Charles Shaw | Other | 278 | 0.7 |
| Laura Ashby | Other | 243 | 0.6 |
| Craig Marshall | Other | 80 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative, toss-up
- Newark Conservative, safe seat
- Gainsborough Reform UK, toss-up
- Grantham and Bourne Conservative, toss-up
- Bassetlaw Reform UK, competitive
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated