Bassetlaw
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bassetlaw | 33.9% | 26.7% | 23.8% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.8 | 24.3%+2.5 | 20.4%+3.3 | 10.4%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,068 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 73.2% |
Current member
Jo White · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo White Elected | Labour | 18,476 | 41.2 |
| Brendan Clarke-Smith | Conservative | 12,708 | 28.3 |
| Frank Ward | Reform UK | 9,751 | 21.7 |
| Helen Tamblyn-Saville | Lib Dems | 1,996 | 4.5 |
| Rachel Reeves | Green | 1,947 | 4.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform UK, competitive
- Doncaster North Labour, safe seat
- Gainsborough Reform UK, toss-up
- Rother Valley Conservative, toss-up
- Mansfield Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated