Doncaster North
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster North | 40.0% | 18.2% | 17.8% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+15.8 | 20.4%−2.2 | 23.1%−5.2 | 5.0%+6.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,680 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
Current member
Ed Miliband · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 29.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Miliband Elected | Labour | 16,231 | 52.3 |
| Glenn Bluff | Conservative | 7,105 | 22.9 |
| Dave Bettney | Other | 1,960 | 6.3 |
| Tony Nicholson | Green | 1,778 | 5.7 |
| Frank Calladine | Other | 1,160 | 3.7 |
| Christopher Dawson | Other | 1,059 | 3.4 |
| Jonathan Harston | Lib Dems | 1,045 | 3.4 |
| Catherine Briggs | Other | 452 | 1.5 |
| Andy Hiles | Other | 212 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform UK, competitive
- Selby Reform UK, toss-up
- Bassetlaw Reform UK, competitive
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour, toss-up
- Rother Valley Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated