Rawmarsh and Conisbrough
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | 37.2% | 36.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.9 | 23.1%+13.6 | 20.4%−8.9 | 10.4%−2.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,482 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 68.2% |
Current member
John Healey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Healey Elected | Labour | 16,612 | 49.0 |
| Adam Wood | Reform UK | 9,704 | 28.6 |
| Oliver Harvey | Conservative | 4,496 | 13.3 |
| Tom Hill | Green | 1,687 | 5.0 |
| Paul Horton | Lib Dems | 1,137 | 3.4 |
| Robert Watson | Other | 268 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rotherham Reform UK, toss-up
- Rother Valley Conservative, toss-up
- Barnsley South Reform UK, safe seat
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated