Rother Valley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 63% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rother Valley | 30.2% | 29.4% | 27.0% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.8 | 23.1%+6.3 | 24.3%+2.8 | 10.4%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,339 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 76.9% |
Current member
Jake Richards · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Richards Elected | Labour | 16,023 | 38.5 |
| Alexander Stafford | Conservative | 15,025 | 36.1 |
| Tony Harrison | Reform UK | 7,679 | 18.5 |
| Paul Martin | Green | 1,706 | 4.1 |
| Colin Taylor | Lib Dems | 1,175 | 2.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour, toss-up
- Rotherham Reform UK, toss-up
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Bolsover Reform UK, toss-up
- Mansfield Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated