Rotherham
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 36.2% | 34.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+13.2 | 24.3%+10.1 | 10.4%−0.5 | 5.0%+4.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,900 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 69.9% |
Current member
Sarah Champion · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Champion Elected | Labour | 16,671 | 45.1 |
| John Cronly | Reform UK | 11,181 | 30.3 |
| Adam Carter | Lib Dems | 2,824 | 7.7 |
| Tony Mabbot | Green | 2,632 | 7.1 |
| Taukir Iqbal | Other | 1,714 | 4.6 |
| David Atkinson | Other | 1,363 | 3.7 |
| Ishtiaq Ahmad | Other | 547 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour, toss-up
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
- Barnsley South Reform UK, safe seat
- Rother Valley Conservative, toss-up
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Heeley Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated