Barnsley South
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley South | 41.6% | 33.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+18.6 | 24.3%+9.7 | 20.4%−12.0 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,571 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 72.5% |
Current member
Stephanie Peacock · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 7.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Peacock Elected | Labour | 16,399 | 46.7 |
| David White | Reform UK | 11,651 | 33.2 |
| Suzanne Pearson | Conservative | 3,247 | 9.3 |
| Trevor Mayne | Green | 1,521 | 4.3 |
| Simon Clement-Jones | Lib Dems | 1,172 | 3.3 |
| Simon Biltcliffe | Other | 716 | 2.0 |
| Terry Robinson | Other | 227 | 0.6 |
| Maxine Spencer | Other | 149 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barnsley North Labour, toss-up
- Normanton and Hemsworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Rotherham Reform UK, toss-up
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour, toss-up
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield South East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated