Normanton and Hemsworth
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normanton and Hemsworth | 37.2% | 35.8% | 12.3% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+14.2 | 24.3%+11.5 | 20.4%−8.1 | 10.4%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,436 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 67.4% |
Current member
Jon Trickett · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Trickett Elected | Labour | 17,275 | 47.5 |
| Callum Bushrod | Reform UK | 10,613 | 29.2 |
| Alice Hopkin | Conservative | 4,995 | 13.7 |
| Ashton Howick | Green | 2,147 | 5.9 |
| Craig Dobson | Lib Dems | 1,319 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barnsley North Labour, toss-up
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform UK, toss-up
- Barnsley South Reform UK, safe seat
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, toss-up
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated