Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | 37.5% | 35.8% | 12.8% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+14.5 | 24.3%+11.6 | 20.4%−7.6 | 10.4%−2.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,088 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 71.2% |
Current member
Yvette Cooper · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yvette Cooper Elected | Labour | 17,089 | 47.5 |
| John Thomas | Reform UK | 10,459 | 29.1 |
| Laura Weldon | Conservative | 5,406 | 15.0 |
| Olli Watkins | Green | 1,651 | 4.6 |
| Jamie Needle | Lib Dems | 1,213 | 3.4 |
| Trevor Lake | Other | 139 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Normanton and Hemsworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, toss-up
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
- Barnsley North Labour, toss-up
- Barnsley South Reform UK, safe seat
- Selby Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated