Leeds East
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds East | 36.2% | 27.7% | 15.6% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.9 | 23.1%+4.6 | 20.4%−4.8 | 10.4%+1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,748 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 69.3% |
Current member
Richard Burgon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 28.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Burgon Elected | Labour | 18,610 | 47.3 |
| David Dresser | Reform UK | 7,345 | 18.7 |
| Sam Firth | Conservative | 6,898 | 17.5 |
| Jennifer Norman | Green | 3,506 | 8.9 |
| Tobie Abel | Lib Dems | 1,445 | 3.7 |
| David Hough | Other | 664 | 1.7 |
| Catherine Dobson | Other | 519 | 1.3 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 222 | 0.6 |
| Pete Young | Other | 179 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds South Labour, safe seat
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, toss-up
- Leeds North East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds Central and Headingley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated