Leeds South West and Morley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 85%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds South West and Morley | 32.0% | 29.3% | 20.4% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.8 | 23.1%+6.2 | 20.4% | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,204 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 71.6% |
Current member
Mark Sewards · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sewards Elected | Labour | 17,681 | 44.0 |
| Andrea Jenkyns | Conservative | 9,258 | 23.0 |
| James Kendall | Reform UK | 8,187 | 20.4 |
| Chris Bell | Green | 2,522 | 6.3 |
| Michael Fox | Lib Dems | 1,798 | 4.5 |
| Howard Dews | Other | 664 | 1.7 |
| Nigel Perry | Other | 99 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds South Labour, safe seat
- Leeds Central and Headingley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds West and Pudsey Labour, safe seat
- Leeds North East Labour, safe seat
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, toss-up
- Dewsbury and Batley Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated