Leeds North East
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Conservative | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds North East | 42.2% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 15.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+18.0 | 10.4%+5.4 | 20.4%−4.9 | 23.1%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,825 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 85.1% |
Current member
Fabian Hamilton · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 35.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 25.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Hamilton Elected | Labour | 23,260 | 51.5 |
| Chris Whiteside | Conservative | 7,177 | 15.9 |
| Louise Jennings | Green | 5,911 | 13.1 |
| Keiran White | Reform UK | 3,426 | 7.6 |
| Gary Busuttil | Lib Dems | 2,168 | 4.8 |
| Dawud Islam | Other | 2,067 | 4.6 |
| Ian Cowling | Other | 574 | 1.3 |
| Mike Davies | Other | 259 | 0.6 |
| Cordelia Lynan | Other | 125 | 0.3 |
| Christopher Nicholson | Other | 109 | 0.2 |
| Stewart Hey | Other | 91 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds Central and Headingley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
- Leeds West and Pudsey Labour, safe seat
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds North West Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated