Leeds North West
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds North West | 34.3% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.0 | 23.1%−2.4 | 20.4%+0.1 | 10.4%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,828 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 78.9% |
Current member
Katie White · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katie White Elected | Labour | 22,882 | 46.0 |
| Thomas Averre | Conservative | 10,986 | 22.1 |
| Jayne Bond | Reform UK | 5,935 | 11.9 |
| Ryk Downes | Lib Dems | 5,641 | 11.3 |
| Mick Bradley | Green | 3,231 | 6.5 |
| Bob Buxton | Other | 1,024 | 2.1 |
| Kathy Bushell | Other | 78 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds West and Pudsey Labour, safe seat
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds Central and Headingley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds North East Labour, safe seat
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated