Shipley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipley | 34.1% | 24.3% | 24.1% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.8 | 20.4%+3.8 | 23.1%+1.0 | 10.4%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,464 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 83.2% |
Current member
Anna Dixon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 17.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Dixon Elected | Labour | 21,738 | 45.0 |
| Philip Davies | Conservative | 13,135 | 27.2 |
| Simon Dandy | Reform UK | 7,238 | 15.0 |
| Kevin Warnes | Green | 3,605 | 7.5 |
| Graham Reed | Lib Dems | 1,341 | 2.8 |
| Will Grant | Other | 447 | 0.9 |
| John Nagbea | Other | 297 | 0.6 |
| Waqas Khan | Other | 269 | 0.6 |
| Paul Shkurka | Other | 137 | 0.3 |
| Darryl Morton-Wright | Other | 96 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bradford West Other, competitive
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Keighley and Ilkley Conservative, safe seat
- Leeds North West Labour, safe seat
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated