Bradford South
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford South | 31.5% | 26.9% | 13.9% | 12.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.4 | 24.3%+2.6 | 20.4%−6.6 | 10.4%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,478 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 76.3% |
Current member
Judith Cummins · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Judith Cummins Elected | Labour | 11,833 | 35.8 |
| Ian Eglin | Reform UK | 7,441 | 22.5 |
| Zaf Shah | Conservative | 4,853 | 14.7 |
| Matt Edwards | Green | 3,366 | 10.2 |
| Rehiana Ali | Other | 3,345 | 10.1 |
| Anthony Smith | Lib Dems | 954 | 2.9 |
| Harry Boota | Other | 513 | 1.6 |
| Jonathan Barras | Other | 489 | 1.5 |
| Therese Hirst | Other | 248 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bradford West Other, competitive
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
- Spen Valley Reform UK, competitive
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
- Huddersfield Green, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated