Spen Valley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spen Valley | 33.6% | 27.1% | 21.2% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.5 | 24.3%+2.9 | 20.4%+0.7 | 10.4%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,940 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 81.2% |
Current member
Kim Leadbeater · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Leadbeater Elected | Labour | 16,076 | 39.2 |
| Sarah Wood | Reform UK | 9,888 | 24.1 |
| Laura Evans | Conservative | 9,859 | 24.0 |
| Martin Price | Green | 2,284 | 5.6 |
| Javed Bashir | Other | 1,526 | 3.7 |
| Alison Brelsford | Lib Dems | 1,425 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dewsbury and Batley Other, safe seat
- Huddersfield Green, toss-up
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Leeds West and Pudsey Labour, safe seat
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Ossett and Denby Dale Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated