Ossett and Denby Dale
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ossett and Denby Dale | 30.1% | 28.1% | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.0 | 24.3%+3.8 | 20.4%+5.1 | 10.4%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,842 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 80.4% |
Current member
Jade Botterill · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jade Botterill Elected | Labour | 17,232 | 39.3 |
| Mark Eastwood | Conservative | 12,690 | 28.9 |
| Sandra Senior | Reform UK | 9,224 | 21.0 |
| Neil Doig | Green | 2,132 | 4.9 |
| James Wilkinson | Lib Dems | 1,785 | 4.1 |
| David Herdson | Other | 810 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dewsbury and Batley Other, safe seat
- Spen Valley Reform UK, competitive
- Penistone and Stocksbridge Reform UK, toss-up
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, toss-up
- Barnsley North Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated