Penistone and Stocksbridge
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penistone and Stocksbridge | 31.9% | 30.1% | 20.7% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.8 | 24.3%+5.8 | 20.4%+0.3 | 10.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 89,968 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 80.9% |
Current member
Dr Marie Tidball · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Tidball Elected | Labour | 19,169 | 43.6 |
| Miriam Cates | Conservative | 10,430 | 23.7 |
| Edward Dillingham | Reform UK | 9,456 | 21.5 |
| Rob Reiss | Lib Dems | 2,866 | 6.5 |
| Andy Davies | Green | 2,044 | 4.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ossett and Denby Dale Reform UK, toss-up
- Sheffield Hallam Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour, safe seat
- Sheffield Central Labour, safe seat
- Barnsley North Labour, toss-up
- Dewsbury and Batley Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated