Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

Sheffield Hallam

Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.4%
  • Lib Dems 26.2%
  • Green 12.2%
  • Conservative 11.0%
  • Reform UK 8.7%
  • Other 3.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Labour Lib Dems Green Conservative
Sheffield Hallam 38.4%26.2%12.2%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 24.3%+14.2 10.3%+15.9 10.4%+1.8 20.4%−9.4

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Local profile

Population94,520
Median age42
Employment rate75.6%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Current member

Olivia Blake · Labour

In office since December 12, 2019. 59th Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

Labour won by 15.9 points.

Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Olivia Blake Elected Labour 23,875 46.3
Shaffaq Mohammed Lib Dems 15,686 30.4
Issac Howarth Conservative 6,205 12.0
Jason Leman Green 4,491 8.7
Andrew Cowell Other 654 1.3
Sam Chapman Other 409 0.8
Mo Moui-Tabrizy Other 281 0.5

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyLabour50%1.2-point gap
  2. Hertford and StortfordReform UK44%1.4-point gap
  3. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservative54%1.4-point gap
Forecast updated