Wakefield and Rothwell
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 84%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakefield and Rothwell | 32.8% | 29.9% | 15.8% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.5 | 23.1%+6.8 | 20.4%−4.6 | 10.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,239 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
Current member
Simon Lightwood · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Lightwood Elected | Labour | 17,773 | 43.7 |
| David Dews | Reform UK | 8,427 | 20.7 |
| Arnold Cravan | Conservative | 7,322 | 18.0 |
| Stewart Golton | Lib Dems | 3,249 | 8.0 |
| Ash Routh | Green | 2,389 | 5.9 |
| Keith Mason | Other | 705 | 1.7 |
| Brent Hawksley | Other | 606 | 1.5 |
| Nicholas Sanders | Other | 185 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds South Labour, safe seat
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
- Normanton and Hemsworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform UK, toss-up
- Barnsley North Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated