Leeds South
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds South | 42.3% | 20.9% | 13.7% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+18.0 | 10.4%+10.5 | 23.1%−9.3 | 20.4%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,907 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 62.0% |
Current member
Hilary Benn · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 35.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hilary Benn Elected | Labour | 17,117 | 54.0 |
| Ed Carlisle | Green | 5,838 | 18.4 |
| Karen Cooksley | Conservative | 4,172 | 13.2 |
| Daniel Whetstone | Other | 1,874 | 5.9 |
| George Sykes | Lib Dems | 1,340 | 4.2 |
| Muhammad Azeem | Other | 719 | 2.3 |
| Janet Bickerdike | Other | 341 | 1.1 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 277 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
- Leeds North East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds Central and Headingley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
- Wakefield and Rothwell Labour, toss-up
- Leeds West and Pudsey Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated