Leeds Central and Headingley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds Central and Headingley | 38.5% | 29.9% | 15.3% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+14.3 | 10.4%+19.5 | 23.1%−7.7 | 10.3%−4.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,466 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 24 |
| Employment rate | 50.9% |
Current member
Alex Sobel · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Sobel Elected | Labour | 15,853 | 50.2 |
| Chris Foren | Green | 7,431 | 23.5 |
| Chris Howley | Lib Dems | 2,611 | 8.3 |
| Reggie Wray | Reform UK | 2,399 | 7.6 |
| Jennifer Jackson | Conservative | 2,237 | 7.1 |
| Owais Rajput | Other | 691 | 2.2 |
| Rob Walker | Other | 187 | 0.6 |
| Louie Fulton | Other | 186 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds North East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds West and Pudsey Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South West and Morley Labour, toss-up
- Leeds South Labour, safe seat
- Leeds North West Labour, safe seat
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated