Halifax
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halifax | 27.9% | 27.4% | 17.4% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.7 | 23.1%+4.4 | 20.4%−3.1 | 10.4%+2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,922 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 64.2% |
Current member
Kate Dearden · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Dearden Elected | Labour | 14,135 | 35.2 |
| Hazel Sharp | Conservative | 7,866 | 19.6 |
| James Griffith-Jones | Reform UK | 7,811 | 19.4 |
| Martin Hey | Green | 4,133 | 10.3 |
| Shakir Saghir | Other | 2,543 | 6.3 |
| Samuel Jackson | Lib Dems | 2,359 | 5.9 |
| Perveen Hussain | Other | 1,367 | 3.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calder Valley Labour, safe seat
- Bradford West Other, competitive
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Colne Valley Labour, toss-up
- Huddersfield Green, toss-up
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated