Bradford West
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford West | 31.1% | 25.6% | 16.9% | 15.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+26.1 | 24.3%+1.4 | 23.1%−6.1 | 10.4%+4.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 122,548 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 31 |
| Employment rate | 56.0% |
Current member
Naz Shah · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.6 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 5.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Shah Elected | Labour | 11,724 | 31.6 |
| Muhammed Islam | Other | 11,017 | 29.7 |
| Khalid Mahmood | Green | 3,690 | 10.0 |
| Akeel Hussain | Other | 3,547 | 9.6 |
| Nigel Moxon | Conservative | 3,055 | 8.2 |
| Jamie Hinton-Wardle | Reform UK | 2,958 | 8.0 |
| Imad Ahmed | Lib Dems | 756 | 2.0 |
| Umar Ghafoor | Other | 334 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
- Keighley and Ilkley Conservative, safe seat
- Spen Valley Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated