Keighley and Ilkley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keighley and Ilkley | 36.1% | 26.2% | 20.6% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.7 | 24.3%+1.9 | 23.1%−2.4 | 10.4%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,610 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 71.7% |
Current member
Robbie Moore · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Moore Elected | Conservative | 18,589 | 40.3 |
| John Grogan | Labour | 16,964 | 36.7 |
| Andrew Judson | Reform UK | 4,782 | 10.4 |
| John Wood | Green | 2,447 | 5.3 |
| Vaz Shabir | Other | 2,036 | 4.4 |
| Chris Adams | Lib Dems | 970 | 2.1 |
| Dominic Atlas | Other | 398 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
- Bradford West Other, competitive
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
- Skipton and Ripon Conservative, safe seat
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Calder Valley Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated