Skipton and Ripon
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skipton and Ripon | 32.8% | 23.4% | 23.0% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.4 | 23.1%+0.4 | 24.3%−1.3 | 10.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,314 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 78.8% |
Current member
Sir Julian Smith · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Smith Elected | Conservative | 18,833 | 35.2 |
| Malcolm Birks | Labour | 17,183 | 32.1 |
| Simon Garvey | Reform UK | 8,516 | 15.9 |
| Andrew Murday | Lib Dems | 4,194 | 7.8 |
| Andy Brown | Green | 3,446 | 6.4 |
| Ryan Kett | Other | 627 | 1.2 |
| Keith Tordoff | Other | 493 | 0.9 |
| Guy Phoenix | Other | 158 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Keighley and Ilkley Conservative, safe seat
- Shipley Labour, safe seat
- Bradford West Other, competitive
- Leeds North West Labour, safe seat
- Bradford East Labour, safe seat
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated