Calder Valley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calder Valley | 33.6% | 24.3% | 23.0% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.4 | 23.1%+1.3 | 20.4%+2.6 | 10.4%+0.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,777 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 75.4% |
Current member
Josh Fenton-Glynn · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fenton-Glynn Elected | Labour | 22,046 | 44.4 |
| Vanessa Lee | Conservative | 13,055 | 26.3 |
| Donald Walmsley | Reform UK | 7,644 | 15.4 |
| Kieran Turner | Green | 3,701 | 7.5 |
| Donal O'Hanlon | Lib Dems | 2,587 | 5.2 |
| James Vasey | Other | 404 | 0.8 |
| Jim McNeill | Other | 171 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
- Colne Valley Labour, toss-up
- Bradford West Other, competitive
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Huddersfield Green, toss-up
- Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated