Colne Valley
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colne Valley | 30.3% | 26.7% | 25.1% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.0 | 20.4%+6.3 | 23.1%+2.0 | 10.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,053 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 72.2% |
Current member
Paul Davies · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Davies Elected | Labour | 18,970 | 41.0 |
| Jason McCartney | Conservative | 14,007 | 30.3 |
| Stuart Hale | Reform UK | 7,298 | 15.8 |
| Heather Peacock | Green | 3,480 | 7.5 |
| Katharine Macy | Lib Dems | 2,007 | 4.3 |
| Timothy Millea | Other | 459 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Huddersfield Green, toss-up
- Halifax Labour, toss-up
- Calder Valley Labour, safe seat
- Spen Valley Reform UK, competitive
- Bradford South Reform UK, toss-up
- Dewsbury and Batley Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated