Selby
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selby | 31.0% | 30.8% | 22.1% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.0 | 24.3%+6.5 | 20.4%+1.7 | 10.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,908 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 82.9% |
Current member
Keir Mather · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keir Mather Elected | Labour | 22,788 | 46.3 |
| Charles Richardson | Conservative | 12,593 | 25.6 |
| David Burns | Reform UK | 9,565 | 19.4 |
| Angela Oldershaw | Green | 2,484 | 5.1 |
| Christian Vassey | Lib Dems | 1,792 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform UK, toss-up
- Doncaster North Labour, safe seat
- York Central Labour, safe seat
- York Outer Labour, safe seat
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Normanton and Hemsworth Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated