York Outer
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York Outer | 32.4% | 23.9% | 21.6% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.2 | 20.4%+3.5 | 23.1%−1.5 | 10.3%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,817 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 82.9% |
Current member
Mr Luke Charters · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Charters Elected | Labour | 23,161 | 45.3 |
| Julian Sturdy | Conservative | 13,770 | 26.9 |
| John Crispin-Bailey | Reform UK | 5,912 | 11.6 |
| Andrew Hollyer | Lib Dems | 5,496 | 10.8 |
| Michael Kearney | Green | 2,212 | 4.3 |
| David Eadington | Other | 260 | 0.5 |
| Keith Hayden | Other | 141 | 0.3 |
| Hal Mayne | Other | 88 | 0.2 |
| Darren Borrows | Other | 66 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- York Central Labour, safe seat
- Selby Reform UK, toss-up
- Thirsk and Malton Conservative, safe seat
- Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative, safe seat
- Goole and Pocklington Conservative, safe seat
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated